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Table of Contents
4
SUMMARY
14
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
16
RESUME
18
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
20
Context
20
Goal and Scope
21
Elements
22
Value chains
22
Scenarios
23
Sustainability Potential Analysis (SPA)
23
Feedstocks for 2nd generation biofuels
26
2nd generation value chains
29
The potential of 2nd generation biofuels for Switzerland
33
Challenges and Risks of 2nd generation biofuels
35
Recommendations
37
1 INTRODUCTION
42
2 GOAL AND SCOPE
46
2.1 Goal
46
2.2 Examined elements
48
3 METHODS
52
3.1 Conceptual framework
52
3.2 Sustainability Potential Analysis (SPA)
53
Infrastructure requirements Infrastructure requirements Infrastructure requirements Infrastructure requirements Infrastructure requirements
67
3.3 Weighting
98
3.4 Uncertainty assessment
101
3.5 Scenario analysis
103
3.6 Structural Agent Analysis
122
4 RESULTS
128
4.1 Assessment of Elements
128
4.2 Assessment of value chains
177
4.3 Assessment of scenarios
192
5 SPOTLIGHTS
216
5.1 Future availability of cropland for biofuels ( H. Schü tz & S. Bringezu)
216
5.2 Land Use Impacts of Jatropha in Brazil A Case Study ( J. Baka and R. Bailis21)
219
5.3 Agrofuels and water a growing conflict? ( R. Menkveld)
223
5.4 2nd generation biofuels and biodiversity ( R. Zah)
227
5.5 Fuels from algae (A. Fahrni & R. Zah)
230
5.6 Biofuels and developing countries ( S. Gmü nder & B. Portner)
235
5.7 Agent analysis of biofuels ( A. Schmid & C. Binder)
243
5.8 Acceptence of 2nd generation biofuels ( L. Diethelm, C. Binder, A. Schmid)
262
6 DISCUSSION
274
6.1 What are the most relevant feedstocks, technologies and use types?
274
6.2 Which will be the relevant value chains?
275
6.3 How do 2nd generation biofuels compare to 1st generation and to electric mobility?
276
6.4 How big is the potential for 2nd generation biofuels in Switzerland?
276
6.5 The role of 2nd generation biofuels in future energy scenarios
277
7 RECOMMENDATIONS
280
8 REFERENCES
288
9 LIST OF FIGURES
302
10 LIST OF TABLES
308
11 ANNEX
312
11.1 Additional information FKVs
312
11.2 Scenarios
321
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