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Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society
von: John Dodson
Springer-Verlag, 2010
ISBN: 9789048187164 , 244 Seiten
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: DRM
Preis: 96,29 EUR
Foreword
5
Preface
8
Contents
10
Contributors
12
Reviewers
15
Introduction
16
Setting the Scene: How Do We Get to a Fitting Future?
18
Introduction
18
Climate Change
19
Climate Impacts on Societies
19
Climate Models
20
This Book
21
References
21
Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures for Natural Resource Management
22
Introduction
22
Observed Impacts
24
Observed Changes in Climate
24
Observed Impacts on Vegetation
24
Observed Impacts on Fauna
27
Observed Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry
27
Projected Impacts
28
Projected Changes in Climate and Uncertainties
28
Projected Impacts on Vegetation
29
Projected Impacts on Fauna
31
Projected Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry
31
Adaptation
32
Types of Adaptation
32
Evolutionary Species Adaptation
32
Species-Specific Natural Resource Management Adaptation
32
Landscape-Scale Natural Resource Management Adaptation
33
References
34
Fire in the Earth System
38
Introduction
38
Observations of Wildfire Regimes
39
Contemporary Fire Patterns
39
Historical Records of Fire
42
Paleofires
42
Controls of Fire
45
People and Fire
47
Fire and Vegetation Dynamics
48
Potential Feedbacks to Climate
49
Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
49
Atmospheric Chemistry Feedbacks
50
Impacts of Soot
51
Costs
52
Future Fire Regimes
54
Mitigation and Adaptation: Can We Manage Future Fire
56
Conclusions
58
References
58
Vanishing Polar Ice Sheets
66
Polar Ice Sheets Drivers and Recorders of the Global Climate System
67
The Polar-Tropical Power Struggle
67
Antarctica
67
Greenland
68
The Deep Time History of Polar Ice Sheets
69
Continents in Motion
69
Gauging Past Temperatures and CO 2 Levels
70
Green Antarctica
73
Icy Antarctica -- Big Dynamic Ice Sheets
75
EAIS Freezes -- WAIS Stays Dynamic
77
Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets Take Over
79
From Wobbles to Cycles
79
Swings of the Past 1 Million Years
80
Stories from Tiny Bubbles
81
The Polar See-Saw
83
Modern Rise of Greenhouse Gases
84
Feeling the Heat
84
Polar Bears Adrift
85
Antarctica Loses Chill
87
Southern Ocean Warming
88
Ice Shelf Collapse
90
Pace Picking Up
91
Bracing for the Future It Is Our Choice
94
More Information
95
References
96
Climate and Peatlands
101
Introduction
101
Peatlands as Archives of Past Climate Variability
102
Chronologies of Wetlands
102
Determination of Peat Humification
103
Peat Macrofossils
104
Testate Amoebae
106
Biomarker Compounds and Stable Isotope Ratios as Indicators of Environmental Change in Peatlands
109
Biomarkers
109
Environmental Stable Isotopes
109
Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes
109
Carbon Isotopes
110
Sand Grain and Dust Influx in Peat Bogs as Proxies of Past Circulation Strength
110
Sand Grains in Peat Deposits
110
Dust Particles in Peat Bogs
111
Tracing the Sources of Dust Input
111
Reconstructions of Past Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics
112
Strengths and Weaknesses
113
Stomatal Records from Subfossil Leaves as Proxies of Plants' Responses to Past Atmospheric CO2 Variations
113
Experimental Settings to Study Stomatal Frequency Responses
114
Methods of Assessing Stomatal Frequency
115
Ice Core and Stomatal Based Reconstructions of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
115
Signal or Noise: Validation of Stomatal-Based CO2 Reconstructions?
116
Impacts of CO2 Changes on Plants and Ecosystems
118
Climate Variability Reconstructed from Peat Bogs
119
Impact of Climate Change on Peatlands and Potential Feedback Mechanisms on Climate
119
Palsa Mires in a Changing Climate
119
Dating of Permafrost Phases in Palsa Mires
120
Ecosystem Protected Permafrost in Palsa Mires
121
Carbon Cycling in Relation to Degradation of Permafrost in Palsa Mires
121
Current and Future Development of Palsa Mires
123
Active Layer and Permafrost Temperatures
123
Experimental Snow Depth Manipulation
124
Modelling Future Palsa Distribution
124
Impact of Climate Change on Regenerating Cutover Bogs: The Future Does Not Look Bright
125
Modelling Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE)
126
Concluding Remarks
127
References
128
Climate and Lacustrine Ecosystems
138
Introduction
138
Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions
140
Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotopes of Biological Materials from Lacustrine Archives as Proxies for Phytoplankton Primary Production, Nutrient Conditions and Water Temperature
141
Quantitative Climate Reconstructions
145
Late Glacial
146
The Holocene
148
The Last Millennium
149
Recent Past Decades
151
Biodiversity
151
The Future
152
Cyanobacteria
153
Changes Through Time
153
The Last Glacial
153
The Holocene
153
The Last Millennium
154
Recent Decades
154
Modeling Future Changes
156
Eutrophication
157
Changes Through Time
157
The Last Glacial Maximum
157
The Holocene
158
The Last Millennium
158
Last Decades
158
Future Changes
158
Oxygen Availability
158
Changes Through Time
159
Long-Temporal Scale
159
The Holocene
159
The Last Millennium
159
Last Decades
159
Future Changes
159
Lake Level Changes
159
The Late Glacial
160
Holocene Lake Level Trends
161
The Last Millennium
162
Last Decades
163
Future Changes
163
UV Penetration in Lakes
163
Changes Through Time
164
Late Glacial
164
The Holocene
164
The Last Millenium
165
Last Decades
165
Future Changes
165
Conclusions
165
References
166
Rivers
176
Introduction
176
Why Fossil Insects Are a Cost Efficient Tool to Analyse Past River Changes
177
Chironomid and Coleopteran Remains as Efficient Palaeoecological Tools
177
Chironomids
177
Coleoptera
178
Climate Reconstructions
179
Pleistocene Sedimentary Sequences: Last Glacial and Late Glacial Periods
179
The Holocene
180
Historical Period (Anthopocene): Local Impacts of Human Activities on River Waterbodies
182
Evidence for Human Impact at Neolithic on the Alluvial Forests
184
Implications for the Future
187
References
188
Climate Change and Desertification with Special Reference to the Cases in China
191
Introduction
191
Desertification in the Past
193
Future Trend of Desertification
198
Interactions Between Climate Change and Desertification
199
Conclusions
199
References
200
Climate Change, Societal Transitions and Changing Infectious Disease Burdens
202
Introduction
202
Faecal-Oral Infectious Diseases
204
Vector-Borne Diseases
206
Conclusion
211
References
211
Don't We All Want Good Weather and Cheap Food?
213
Introduction
213
Food Security -- A Human Right Since 1948
213
Changes in Demand Drivers to What We Want
214
Population Growth
215
Access to Food
216
Markets and Distribution
217
Changes in Supply Can We Get It?
220
Climate Change
220
Land Use Change
222
Technological Fix
223
Concluding Remarks
224
Find Out More About...
225
References
226
Building Capacity to Cope with Climate Change in the Least Developed Countries
228
Introduction
228
Responding to the Challenges of Climate Change and Development: The CLACC Programme
230
Box 1 CLACC programme aims
231
The CLACC Fellowship Programme
231
Attending Key Meetings
232
Strengthening NAPAs
232
Research
232
Regional Workshops
232
Outreach Activities
233
Climate Change and Urban Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
233
Managing and Evaluating CLACC
235
Relevance
236
Effectiveness
236
Impact
237
Efficiency
238
Sustainability
238
What Next for CLACC?
239
Lessons Learned for Capacity-Building Programmes Elsewhere
239
References
240
Climate Change Mitigation Policy: An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges
242
Introduction
242
Climate Change Mitigation Options
242
Economic Case for Climate Change Mitigation
243
Implementation of Climate Policy Measures
245
Critique of Current Policy Approaches
247
New Economic Thinking for Climate Change Mitigation
249
Towards Achieving Global Climate Change Mitigation
250
References
251
Index
253
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