The Search for a Unified Korea - Political and Economic Implications

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Contents

List of Tables

1 Are Koreans Ideological Victims?

1.1 The Division and Loss of Indigenous Identity

1.2 Kim Il-Sungs Miscalculation and the Subsequent Years

1.3 Brief Retrospect of the North Juche ( Self-Reliant ) Hermit Kingdom

1.4 Different Roads

1.5 Mass Starvation Under Plenary Power Elites

1.6 For Whom the Mourning Bell Tolls?

1.7 The Shelter for Fearful Leaders

1.8 Who Will Likely Take Over After Kim Jong-Il?

2 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: The Need forINTtie;Reciprocity. Does Lopsided Cooperation Soothe theINTtie;North's Bluffing Mentality?

2.1 The Definition: Economic Cooperation Versus Bilateral Trade

2.2 The Historical Outline of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

2.3 The Status of the Inter-Korean Trade

2.4 Comparison of the Inter-Korean Trade with the North KoreaChina Trade

2.5 The Determinants of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

2.5.1 The Brief Outline

2.5.2 Trade, Investment, and Economic Assistance

2.6 The Effects of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation

2.6.1 The Impacts on the South Korean Economy

2.6.2 The Impact on the North Korean Economy

2.7 New Policy Paradigm Under Lee Myung-Baks Leadership?

2.8 Closing Remarks on Reciprocity Principle

3 The Strain Policy Versus the Sunshine Policy: A Road toINTtie;Korean Unification

3.1 Introduction

3.2 How Long Will the Red Flag Fly with the Souths Subsidy?

3.3 What About the Sunshine Policy?

3.4 What Exacerbates Internal Tensions?

3.5 Conclusion: Shorten the Regime on the Brink

4 What if a Big Bang Occurs on the Korean Peninsula?

4.1 Introduction: What if North Korea Falls?

4.2 Historical Evolutions of the NorthSouth Korean Relations

4.3 The Spillover Effects of Perestroika and Glasnost

4.3.1 Gorbachev Phenomenon and Communist Bloc Change

4.3.2 Why Does North Korea Refuse Fundamental Change?

4.4 Can Kim Jong-Ils Regime Last Much Longer?

4.4.1 Some Scenarios on North Korean Regime Collapse

4.5 What Will Neighboring Nations Do if North Korea Falls?

4.5.1 ''Big Bang and the After'' Scenario: Dynamite-Implosion Model

4.5.2 Chinese Perceptions of the Korean Peninsula

4.5.3 Chinese Response to the North's Collapse Due to Implosion

4.5.4 China and North Korea at the Crossroad

4.5.5 US Policy and the Korean Peninsula

4.5.6 Japan and the Korean Peninsula

4.5.7 Russia and the Korean Peninsula

4.6 How Should Koreans Cope with a Big Bang?

4.7 Appendix

5 New World Environment Surrounding Korea

5.1 Introduction: Misty and Rugged Road to Korean Reunification

5.2 The DPRK and Obama Administration

5.3 Will Kim Jong-Ils End Differ from Ceausescus?

5.4 Will Korean Unification Be Welcome?

5.5 Leadership Role in German Unification Has a Lesson for Korea

5.6 Timely Conditions for a Paradigm Shift

6 The Political Economy of Reunification Betweenthe Two Koreas

6.1 Introduction

6.2 A Brief Comparison of Economic Performance Between the Two Koreas

6.3 The Economics of Guns and Bread

6.4 The Economics of the Norths Nuclear and Missile Tests

6.5 The Political Economy of Korean Unification

7 Policy Priorities for the Unified Korea

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Contingency Tasks for a Post-Kim Jong-Il Era

7.3 Approach for Economic Integration

7.3.1 Economic and Monetary Integration for the Unified Korea

7.3.2 Economic Restructuring and Privatization

7.4 Appendix

(A) National Reunification and ''Conclusion of Agreements on Traffic, Correspondence and Trade''

(B) The July 7th Declaration entitled ''Special Declaration for Korean Self-Existence and Prosperous Unification''

8 International Politics and a Search for Unified Korea

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Four Gangs Tug-of-War Politics and the Korean Peninsula

8.3 What Is the Unification Formula: Option for Colorless State?

8.4 Concluding Remarks

Appendix

Bibliography

Index